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Constructive Thoughts for the Day

 

The Challenging Mission of the New Cabinet

 

26 October 2006

Dear friends,  

In the past year, political affairs in Thailand have affected the economy to an extreme degree, leaving the confidence of investors and the people in decline. But, thanks to a new Prime Minister who is accepted as a man of integrity and good ethics, together with his very capable cabinet line-up, the  economy has now picked up.

 This interim government has a chance to promote changes that an elected government would have no motivation to initiate, since it is free from the need for popular approval and can therefore drive policies forward for the longterm benefit of all, even if these policies do not make them popular.

 However, the new cabinet has but one year in which to get the job done, thus tasks must be correctly prioritized, with the mission tailored for short-term accomplishment due to the time limit. Priorities include restoring economic confidence, managing the fiscal budget for 2007, solving problems caused by policies of the previous government, and deciding on which policies to continue from the previous regime.

 There are many challenges to face, for example:

State-enterprise transformation  The previous government transformed Thailand’s state-enterprises for its own overlapping benefits, contrary to the intentions of the law. Consequently, EGAT’s transformation was deemed illegal and finally canceled, while PTT is now the subject of legal proceedings. Although PTT was transformed,  some aspects of PPT business are still monopolized, with no independent public agency to ensure fair competition for the protection of consumer benefits. Hence, consumers may have to bear the burden, with PPT profits belonging to only some shareholders.

 Though PTT transformation depends on the verdict of the court, the new cabinet must vilify PTT’s transformation, now having its side effects to manage. Money must be provided for the re-purchase of private sector shares and to mend the effects of stock market investment . Next, an approach must be decided for state-enterprise management entailing sufficient investment, operational efficiency and fairly priced service maintenance.

 FTA negotiation The previous government carelessly initiated FTAs, then failed to listen sufficiently to the people, disclose agreements, or raise them for parliamentary consideration.

Arguably, some conflict with the Constitution may have existed. The result of hurried negotiations negatively affects small farmers and small manufacturers who have no government support measures and compensation mechanisms arranged.

The new cabinet will be challenged by the continuation of FTAs, especially the FTAs of Japan and America, which are not yet concluded. To cancel or postpone negotiations indicates policy uncertainty that may affect the confidence of other countries toward Thailand. But if these FTAs are continued, the government will be under strong pressure from people who oppose the move. What is important is to establish the rules and processes for negotiation.

 Competition in commerce The previous government neglected the development of rules for commercial competition. The result was unfairness in business competition , especially retailing, where unjust strategizing let huge retail businesses be established in urban areas. Small retailers across the board have thus been badly affected, and demand government attention to solve their problems.

The government’s challenge is to resolve the problems of huge retail businesses developing in urban areas If the government cancels their business rights, it will affect investment and investor confidence. If the government limits new investment, it will be unfair for old investors in relation to new businesses and will also allow old businesses to establish monopolies. If the government maintains its same policies as in the past, how will it manage the problems of small retailers?

 Solving the problem of nominees  If the court judges that Kularbkaew Co. Ltd. really is a nominee of Temasek, will the government also take action with other companies? It is believed that many foreign investors use nominees as shareholders in Thailand, so if the government does not examine other companies, criticism may be made as to government prejudice. But if other companies are examined, it may cause investment to move out of Thailand. The challenge is how the interim government will deal with this matter in order to keep the law, while at the some time, not damage the economy.

 Other issues also wait to challenge the new cabinet, for example, the problem of corrupt business sector management, the problem of consumer protection mechanisms, the problem of labour and social protection, and the problem of economic activities that affect the environment and the community.

 The policies of the new Prime Minister do not emphasize economic growth as before. But as this government falls hard on the heels of the previous administration that fully emphasized economic growth, it must face whatever problems occur from policy changes to the old economic structure, and bear risks that could badly affect the economy. However, it is hopefully not beyond the capabilities of this new cabinet. 

 

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