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Dear
friends,
Following
a
meeting
of the
Election
Commission
with
twenty
political
parties,
the
decision
was made
by a
majority
vote of
thirteen
parties,
(TRT
abstaining),
for a
new
election
date of
October
22,
2006. A
royal
decree
will be
issued
on
August
24, with
applications
open for
party
list MPs
on
August
29-31,
2006,
and for
district
MPs on
September
1-5,
2006. If
the
Cabinet
agrees
to the
decision
of the
EC
meeting,
I
believe
that
significant
political
consequences
will
follow.
There
will be
an
attempt
to move
to other
parties
Setting
dates
for a
new
election
on
October
22,
2006,
and for
MP
applications,
as
mentioned
above,
will
contravene
Article
104 (4)
of the
Constitution,
which
states
that an
MP
Candidate
must be
a
political
party
member
for at
least 90
days
before
an
election
application
date.
Therefore,
from now
until
May 31,
2006,
which is
the 90
day
deadline
before
the
application
date,
politicians
will
attempt
to move
to other
parties,
resulting
in huge
money
circulation
as big
political
parties
lavishly
spend in
order to
keep
their
members.
According
to a
current
analysis,
one big
political
party
will not
be
investing
greatly
due to
their
leader’s
break
from
politics,
which
would
not let
him make
full
beneficial
gains
from
such an
investment.
In that
case,
faction
leader
will
have to
invest
in their
own
campaigns,
unless
the
situation
changes
and the
leader
decide
on heavy
financial
investment
in order
to keep
his
members.
It is my
observation
that the
TRT
party
abstained
from
voting
on a new
election
date,
due to
their
loss of
benefits.
For
example,
there
was a
rumour
that
many TRT
MPs will
move,
such as
Wang Nam
Khem
Group (Sonthaya
Khunpluem)
Lam
Takhlong
Group (Suwat
Liptaphanlop),
and Wang
Phayaanaak
Group (Phinit
Jarusombat)
The
“Care-taker”
Prime
Minister
will
return
from his
political
holiday
If
Thaksin
still
refrains
from
taking
the
premiership
in the
new
election,
the
condition
of the
TRT
party
will
likely
worsen.
Without
him as
premier,
TRT
voters
may
decide
to vote
for
other
parties
because
they
like him
and do
not know
the
person
raised
to
replace
him.
While
TRT will
likely
gain a
majority
of MPs
in the
new
election,
it may
risk
failing
to reach
half of
the
House
seats
needed
in order
to set
up a one-party
government.
Or, at
worst,
it may
become
an
opposition
party if
its
leader
declares
his
permanent
exit
from
politics
and
different
groups
in the
party
also
move
out.
Hence,
TRT’s
leader
will
very
likely
go back
on his
word by
returning
to join
the
election
as
premier.
Thus,
old
votes
will be
kept and
some TRT
groups
will
combine
to
strengthen
MP
unity.
All TRT
members
appear
convinced
by the
belief
that the
April 2,
2006
election
was
already
null and
void
from the
start,
therefore,
that
their
leader’s
pledge
to
recess
from the
premiership
need not
be taken
so
seriously.
New
political
parties
will be
created
This
90-day
period
before
election
applications,
opens a
window
for new
political
parties
and
politicians
to come
up to
the
plate,
and
their
opportunity
for
participation
in the
House is
high.
These
new
political
parties
could be
formed
from
assemblies
of
former
TRT
politicians,
or
former
opposition
parties,
for
example,
Sanaw
Thienthong’s
Pracharat
Party,
Chalerm
U-bamrung’s
party,
or even
Chuvit
Kamolvisit’s
party.
But,
new
political
parties
will
more
likely
arise
from
groups
of new
politicians,
together
with
some old
faces.
One
party of
note is
the
Muslim
Party,
who may
attempt
to gain
votes in
the four
southern
provinces.
Another
party
will be
assembled
from a
group of
acting
Senators,
whose
large
vote
base is
the
Peoples’
Alliance
for
Democracy,
the
group
who
supported
Thaksin’s
dismissal.
In
addition,
a new
political
party
may re-form
from
Group
77, an
academic
body,
whose
leader
is Dr
Anake
Laothammathat.
Recent
political
events
have
bored
the
people
with
politics
and
politicians
in
general.
Thus,
these
newborn
parties
will
stimulate
new
interest
and
offer
people
more
alternatives
on
October
22. The
possibility
of
sharing
the
electoral
vote is
high and
will
result
in a
multi-party
government.
While
such a
government
will
have its
disadvantages,
for
example,
instability,
it will
also
have its
advantages
when it
comes to
the
careful
consideration
of
political
reform
from all
angles.
However,
opportunity
for
political
change
is very
difficult
owing to
the
current
head of
a major
party
not
wanting
to
either
relinquish
power or
change
his
ways. We
may
observe
Cabinet’s
postponed
consideration
of the
EC’s
decision
for a
new
election
date, as
being
due only
to the
EC not
submitting
its
decision
in a
formal
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